Consumer Confidence, US Dollar, Recession Talking Points:
- Consumer Confidence shows record drop on COVID-19 impact
- US Dollar remains under pressure as pandemic conclusion comes in sight
- Week ahead is packed with economic data, including US GDP Q1 on Wednesday
Consumer confidence recorded the largest drop on record Tuesday morning as the figure from the Conference Board crossed the wires at 86.9, down from the previous read of 118.8 from March. The sharp drop in consumer confidence underscores the dramatic impact from COVID-19, resulting in over 26 million jobs lost in the US economy over the past 5 weeks. US Dollar price action ticked slightly lower on the grim figure.
US Dollar Basket Chart (1-Min)
Source: IG Charts
The current conditions figure, a major component within the consumer confidence survey, deteriorated further for April with 45.2 percent of respondents claiming business conditions are “bad,” up from 11.7 percent. Also troubling, is consumers assessment of labor market conditions, with 20.8 percent expecting fewer jobs in the coming months, up from 17.6 percent.
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However, while consumer confidence reflects a deterioration in sentiment for the near future, US equity indexes continue to aim higher. The Nasdaq is leading the pack among the three major US baskets, and the tech-heavy index will report earnings from Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Google, and Facebook this week.
The week is far from over, however. Heavy-hitting economic data prints will continue this week, with the United States advance reading for Q1 GDP expected Wednesday morning. We will also get a Fed rate decision and PMI manufacturing data out of China.
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