USD, NFP Price Analysis & News
- US CPI Matches Estimates, Core CPI Softer Than Expected
- USD Dips, Gold Gains, S&P 500 at Session Highs
US CPI Matches Estimates, Core CPI Misses
BOTTOM LINE: The headline US CPI rose in line with expectations at 1.7% for the yearly rate, while the month on month reading matched estimates of 0.4%. Meanwhile, the core figures both yearly and monthly fell short of expectations by 0.1ppts. Overall, this is a slightly softer inflation report, however, the near term outlook remains that inflation will be pushing higher due to base effects, a message that has been reiterated by the Federal Reserve who forecast temporary spikes in inflation.
MARKET REACTION: In response to the slightly lower than expected core figures, price action has been relatively choppy with the greenback initially moving lower, to dip back below 92.00, while gold and US equities saw a modest bounce as US yields fell. Overall the moves are relatively contained with the figures remaining well within the range of forecasts.
USD, US RATES & GOLD REACTION TO US CPI
Source: Refintiv
LOOKING AHEAD: The fixed income complex will remain a focal point with the upcoming US 10Y auction results due to be released at 1800GMT, which comes after yesterday’s strong 3Y auction. With that in mind, should today’s auction proved to be relatively strong, this is likely to ease the upside pressure in US yields and thus weigh on the greenback against its major counterparts.
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