Salesforce shares are likely to rerate higher

By Sam Boughedda

BofA analysts maintained a Buy rating and $210 per share price target on Salesforce (NYSE:) shares Monday, telling investors the company’s shares are likely to rerate over time with improving free cash flow.

Salesforce shares are down 2.5% at the time of writing on Monday. So far in 2022, the stock is down more than 43% as macroeconomic headwinds have weighed heavily on the tech sector.

However, after completing a round of calls with “nearly a dozen” key Salesforce SI partners, the analysts said feedback suggests that lengthening sales cycles did pressure the company’s Q3 deal activity. Even so, all partners “cited in line or better Q3 deal activity.”

“Many shared that their Q4 expectations are more conservative and in some cases, may be a challenge. Softness appears to be limited to peripheral categories such as Commerce and Marketing Cloud, with relative strength in the core Sales and Service Clouds,” they said.

“Industry Clouds were also cited as an area of relative strength, particularly energy, financials, and government. Feedback on Tableau/Mulesoft suggests stable deal activity and pipelines, as the company works through some execution challenges in these lines of business. Partners cited mixed feedback on Slack with pipelines for joint solutions still in early stages. While Q3 was a more challenging quarter, we expect total rev to be largely in line with our (consensus) est. of $7.83bn, representing conservative growth of 14% y/y or 17.5% cc, decelerating from 20% org cc in Q2,” the analysts added.

However, while they stated that the current macroeconomic climate “adds some near-term uncertainty” to its near-term estimates, BofA sees Salesforce emerging as the “next quality GARP stock in software.”

“With enduring mid/high teens growth and potential for 200+ bps margin expansion (ex-acquisitions), we believe there’s potential for 30%+ FCF growth exiting the macro slowdown. As this growth profile comes into view, we believe the shares are likely to rerate higher from the current level (19x C24 FCF). Maintain Buy/top pick and $210 PO,” the analysts concluded.