Thank you, David Jackson and Seeking Alpha, for publishing my articles over the past decade. On your site, I met a future colleague, launched Sifting the World, disclosed billions of dollars of trades, went activist on three banks (two of which subsequently sold at premiums), and twice offered million dollar bets that I would have won (politely rejected by Warren Buffett and ignored by Kathie Wood). Because I focus on M&A, most of my winners have been bought and delisted. The old saw about value investing is that it is buying $1 for $0.50; I add the caveat that I want to know when I’ll get that dollar. So, only a few of my ideas are timeless, but here are four worth looking back on.
- It can be lucrative to know how to detect deception.
- Poker and investing are both about decisions amidst risk and uncertainty, played out in real time.
- Liquidity-constrained counterparties make the best opponents.
- Recently, a decorated veteran asked for my help in thinking about his transition to civilian life.
- Here are the eight steps that I recommended in financially planning for civilian life.
- Anyone could take advantage of each of these eight steps.
- Sifting the World is an exclusive research service for value and event driven investors.
- The membership window is open and will close once there are 1,000 members.
- The goal is to build a community of investors seeking a high level of expected value and communication about event driven ideas.
- What are they?
- How and why.
- Kick ‘em when they’re down.
Each December, I offer Sifting the World members a sneak peek at our best idea for the following year. My goal is to offer something so good – and to keep them updated with developments in real time – that this single idea is worth the entire membership dues.
- Worth more than double today’s share price.
- Costs under $7 but could rebound towards its $17 IPO.
- One specific reason for WOW’s undervaluation.
Our best idea year before last, I still own and love WideOpenWest (NYSE:WOW) today. An $854 investment in this one idea would have paid for a year’s membership with everything else as upside. And that is before a potentially imminent takeover premium.
Last year’s best idea, SuRo (SSSS), returned about 73% in 2021. We subsequently sold it.
As a bonus, we also offered a best SPAC for the year:
- AerSale is about to take off.
- Here’s why it could double in the new year.
- Value and catalysts make it the top deSPACed equity for 2021.
We still like it and own it today. It has performed better than all but a few SPACs and that is before the imminent approval of its transformative AerAware manufactured product which has the potential to double the company’s value. It is among the most discussed ideas on StW and is a major holding of a number of members.
- StW’s best idea for 2022.
- A disastrous – but appealable – decision.
- An uncorrelated opportunity for the New Year.
This year’s idea, Renren (NYSE:RENN) has done well so far, but its catalyst remains in the future: our thesis is that they will distribute to shareholders >100% of its current share price and you will be left with a stub that still has several dollars of value. On a personal note, this is one of only three stocks that my long-suffering wife of over two decades of service listening to me bang on about stocks every day has been convinced to buy. I have been directly and actively involved in this situation since we first disclosed the position and will see it through to the end while keeping StW members appraised of any developments that can appropriately be shared.
Thanks fellow StW members for making this so valuable. Thanks to this community for years of loyalty, over 100 5-star reviews, and help honing our market-beating ideas. You made us the top research service for SPACs, value, arbitrage, and M&A. I look forward to a long and lucrative future together. You are five stars; I will keep earning your trust.
Let me give you the final word. Please click here to read the reactions from StW members. Forty members took the time to write their conclusions about StW so far this year and all forty gave it a five star review. Every day I want to re-earn their trust. If you want to know what you’re missing, just read them all.