Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) Q3 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions]Your first question will come from the line of Robbie Ohmes with Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Robert Ohmes

Well, good morning, and thanks for taking my question. I am going to actually slip in just two real quick. Just the first question was just if, Jochen, you can talk about how demand feels in the fourth quarter here, both in the U.S. and in the rest of world? Any kind of changes you’ve seen and how the dealers are feeling?

And then for Gina, I was hoping you could help us with the gross margin outlook. Great gross margin that you guys had. How do we think a little more color on how to think about the fourth quarter? And any kind of thoughts you would give us, preliminary thoughts on how we think about it for next year? Thank you.

Jochen Zeitz

Yes. Thanks, Robbie. To your first question, as I mentioned earlier, we saw improvements in retail sales as the quarter went on. And therefore, we believe that the decline in retail sales was primarily due to the lack of availability of inventory at the dealer network and as we got to mid-August, things started to turn positive and retail sales have been positive ever since. So – we – overall, at this point, with more inventory available at the dealers, we feel pretty good about it. And that is particularly the case for the U.S. and our Asia Pacific markets.

Gina Goetter

Good morning, Robbie. In terms of your question on margins, yeah, we had a very good margin quarter, really driven by the strong recovery that we had in units and the profitable mix of those units, coupled with the pricing actions that we had in market more than offsetting the cost inflation. But the quarter – to really get an accurate view on our on our margin for the year, you got to look at year-to-date because it combines kind of that shortfall that we had in Q2 combined with Q3.

But still, the story remains very positive. So we have these year-to-date 2.5 points of margin growth. Remember, a point of that is coming from the tariff comp that we had from last year of additional EU tariffs sitting in there. As we think forward and think about Q4 and into 2023, remember, keep in mind that our FX rates, as we are going through the balance of the year is going to get worse.

I mean, as that deterioration has come into the P&L earlier in the year really not having any sort of material impact on margin. As we got into Q3 and as we look to Q4 and next year, that is absolutely going to have a bigger impact.

And if you think of Q4 as well, remember that we are continuing to do the changeover of our model year production at the end of October here. So from a shipment standpoint, we ship roughly, call it, 60% of an average quarter in Q4. So that weighs on our margins as well. So, from a year-to-date standpoint, we are sitting in a really good position and feel good about the guidance that we’ve given, knowing what we know coming at us for Q4.

In terms of 2023, looking at the margin progress that we’ve made over the past couple of years, we are really proud of the progress. We added a chart in this – these materials this time to look at our profitability per bike and you can really see all of the work that we are doing on cost and on pricing and on – and really focusing on that mix playing through our profitability per bike.

And as we foresee that really sticking with us as we move into 2023 we are just in the midst of budgeting. So we are not going to comment too terribly much on what the outlook is for next year, but keep in mind a couple of things, one, our rule of thumb is that we are going to take enough pricing that’s offsetting the cost inflation, and then the second piece is this FX headwind that’s coming at us.

So, well, it will be material for us next year and we are just kind of shaking and figuring out how much of that pricing is going to be able to offset the FX for next year.

Robert Ohmes

Very helpful. Thank you, so much, Gina.

Gina Goetter

You are welcome.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Craig Kennison with Baird. Please go ahead.

Craig Kennison

Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking my question, as well. Gina, I was just going to follow-up on that Slide 9, where you talked about HDMC profitability per bike. I am assuming that includes your parts and accessory business, as well. First of all, can you confirm that?

Gina Goetter

Yes. Yes, you are absolutely right. That includes parts and accessories.

Craig Kennison

Okay. So in some ways, like you produced fewer bikes, that’s a higher margin business, so maybe you can earn more per bike. I am just wondering, it’s such an impressive reversal in that trend. Where do you think that metric ultimately can go?

Gina Goetter

When you think about the guide that we have out there for Hardwire to and getting back to that mid-teens margin number, I mean, that mid-teens margin number was anchored around that in 2014, 2015 kind of profitability per unit. So I think there is still upward potential in the long run. Again, I think as we think about 2023 and working through this FX impact, we’ll have to keep that in mind for next year. But over the long run, as you look at that 14 anchor, that’s a good one to kind of have out there.

Craig Kennison

Is there a way to deconstruct that to say how much money you make on a bike versus how much you money you make on an attachment rate, because you sold the bike and then how much is just coming in because you’ve got this great network of riders that buy PG&A all the time.

Gina Goetter

We can break that down. We have broken that down. We are not quite sharing that publicly yet, but we do understand both the profitability per bike is increasing based on the factors that we’ve noted and we are having a stronger attach rate and intend to have a stronger attach rate as we move forward. But we can provide some more clarity on that as we move into 2023.

Craig Kennison

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Your next question will come from the line of Joseph Altobello with Raymond James. Please go ahead.

Joseph Altobello

Thanks. Hey guys. Good morning. I guess the first question on inventory, so you had 30,000 units in dealer inventory worldwide. By my math, it’s about nine weeks up year-over-year, but you are roughly half of where you were, call it, three years ago. And I guess how far below optimal do you think you are right now? However you want to define that whether it’s units or weeks on hand, for example.

Edel O’Sullivan

Hi, Joseph. Good morning. This is Edel. You are correct in your assessment of the inventory position. I think the most important thing for us is to be able to start the riding season as we look into 2023 at a much healthier level of inventory.

We know that over the past few quarters and indeed maybe even over the past couple of years, we have not had the optimal level of inventory in any of our markets to really be able to capture the beginning of the season and the upside demand potential. So we are pleased to see that that situation is recovering as we get into the back half of 2022.

That said, just as you noted, we continue to understand that it is very important for us and our guiding principle of desirability to ensure a restrained and adequate level of inventory. We do not intend to go back to historical levels that created many challenges for profitability, not only for us but also for our dealers.

That’s an important part also of what Gina was just sharing in the previous question. So I certainly think that we are in a much healthier position. We think this will allow us to start the riding season in a much more comfortable place, both domestically and in international markets. Still overall, understanding the importance of a restrained inventory position that lives under our broader framework of desirability.

Joseph Altobello

Yeah, but how many bikes are you below optimal? I mean, is it 5,000 bikes? Is it 10,000 bikes?

Edel O’Sullivan

Yeah. That will certainly be something that will depend. We monitor it very closely as we look at the retail trends in each of the markets. Again, we think that the level that we are at now is healthy. We think that we continue to have at this point, what we need to start the season effectively and we will continue to monitor that as we go into the New Year.

Joseph Altobello

Okay. And just maybe a question for Gina, if we assume no changes from today, could supply chain cost be a potential tailwind in 2023?

Gina Goetter

Absolutely. Yes. As you see our performance through third quarter here, we started to see the supply chain play out as we had hoped with logistics costs starting to moderate middle markets coming back to us that will continue – those tailwinds will continue as we move into 2023.

Now labor is still a factor that we are going to have to contend with next year from an inflation standpoint that is a piece that will continue to hit us. And the overall supply base itself is still not super stable. So there is puts and takes, but largely speaking the huge inflation that we were seeing within logistics and raw materials is starting to mitigate.

Joseph Altobello

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Your next question will come from the line of James Hardiman with Citi. Please go ahead.

James Hardiman

Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking my call. So, just a quick clarification. Jochen, you mentioned that since sort of mid-August, retail had been positive. I am assuming that includes the month of October, so maybe speak to October.

But then maybe a follow-up on – or of – maybe a clarification follow-up on Joe’s question about inventory, as we exit this year, is the right way to think about next year that wholesale and retail units should generally be aligned or do you think there is going to be some incremental catch-up to be done in 2023? Thanks.

Jochen Zeitz

Thanks, James. Yes, that it did – my statement did include October. So we’ve seen that positive trend to continue into the fourth quarter to-date. Look, catch-up to Edel’s point, it depends on retail development, right? So, certainly, the big catch-up was in the third quarter now with the production suspension that we had that cost us anywhere between 10,000, 12,000 units, of which most we’ve now compensated in the third quarter.

There is still a bit of catch-up in the fourth quarter to do with a few thousand units and then it all depends on how retail is going to develop. We certainly will stay very agile to make sure that supply and demand are in good balance and that we are not oversupplying the market. But it’s difficult to project retail at this current environment. We are certainly planning for all eventualities, but what we are seeing so far and in particular, in October is a positive trend.

James Hardiman

And just maybe one point of clarification, domestic versus international, the inventories in the field are more balanced, I think than they’ve historically been. Can you just speak to sort of your relative comfort with domestic versus international is one, I don’t know. Is there more sort of room to go on one versus the other?

Jochen Zeitz

Well, I think overall, we feel good about the inventory on a global level and in particular with regard to the U.S. and Asia. EMEA market is anybody’s guess right now how EMEA is going to develop. But overall, we feel good about the inventory level that we have right now.

James Hardiman

Got it. Thank you.

Operator

Your next question will come from the line of Fred Wightman with Wolfe Research. Please go ahead.

Fred Wightman

Hey guys. Good morning. I just wanted to take a look at the full year guidance. I know we always sort of run into this for the 3Q print, but there is a pretty wide range implied for 4Q on sales and operating profit just with the current guidance. So can you sort of talk about, what gets you to the high end of that range versus the low end? Is it really just some of the retail momentum that Jochen just talked about? Is it supply chain, like what are sort of the positives and negatives there?

Gina Goetter

Sure, morning, this is Gina. I would say, what gets us to the high end of the range, remember, we – again, we are cutting off production and shipping or kind of shipping over to the next model year at the end of October. So really, what gets us to the high end is that those bikes get on the water for our international markets, having them be able to hit an invoice in the current year.

So that really is what’s swinging kind of from the 5% to the 10% now. We feel confident about the production. We feel confident about what kind of we are going to work to wholesale. We feel confident in the demand that is there. It’s now just a matter of can we get it shipped and invoiced in those international markets in time.

I think from a pricing standpoint, we are continuing feel good about the pricing that we have in the market, as well. On the margin standpoint, what gets us to that higher end of the range is continuing to see the supply chain trends that we saw in Q3 plays through in Q4.

Fred Wightman

Got it. Thank you.

Operator

Your next question will come from the line of Gerrick Johnson with BMO Capital. Please go ahead.

Gerrick Johnson

Good morning. Thank you. I have a couple here. First, you mentioned improving availability in U.S. and APAC, but not EMEA. So what happened there?

Jochen Zeitz

Availability is fine. I am just saying I think the economic outlook currently in EMEA is to be seen. Very hard to judge the trends in the fourth quarter anyway. But I’d say the confidence levels are certainly a lot higher in the U.S. and in Asia Pacific but inventory availability is fine.

Gerrick Johnson

Okay, understood. And P&A was down, trailed everything else. So why was that down?

Edel O’Sullivan

P&A, there is a couple of different dynamics playing out there. The first, I think the supply challenges continue for much longer in this category than in motorcycles and that certainly continues to be an area where there is high backorders on some of our categories that are most important to accessorizing a bike, so that’s one dynamic.

The second dynamic is certainly the attach rate to new motorcycles and essentially, what I mean by that is the fact that the motorcycles we didn’t have the availability in Q2 as they came in, many of those bikes were spoken for and essentially are turning so quickly on the floor that the potential for pre-accessorization was a little bit muted. So that certainly has been the two driving factors behind P&A for the quarter.

Now if you look in terms of the overall decline in retail versus the decline in P&A, we still are driving a little bit of improved growth there, pricing is a factor, of course. But we think that as supply normalizes, not only in motorcycles but also in most P&A categories themselves, we should see improvement in that growth trajectory for the business.

Gerrick Johnson

Okay. Very good, Edel. Thank you. And Gina, one last one, you reduced your CapEx by about $25 million for project implementation. So what was that that got pushed out?

Gina Goetter

I wouldn’t say anything necessarily got pushed out. It’s just a phasing of when some of the expenditures we are hitting in terms of just the timing of the project. There is nothing that’s been delayed or pushed in that way. It’s really more of an accounting thing of when costs are going to hit or expenses are going to be paid.

Gerrick Johnson

Okay. Great. Thank you.

Operator

Your next question will come from the line of Joseph Spak with RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Joseph Spak

Thank you. Gina, maybe just on the logistics comments like, if I look back last quarter, I think you indicated that would be flat for the second half, now it was down this quarter. You are seeing it down again in the fourth quarter and I know you are doing a lot less expedited and ocean is down, but is this really just a comp issue from a super high level expert, because we are hearing a lot of challenges on rail for instance.

So, I’d just be curious to see – to hear to know what you are seeing that gives you confidence that logistics can be a positive for you guys here.

Gina Goetter

Yeah, Joe, good question. To your point on comp, that really had much to do with Q3. Q3 in 2021 was really high for us, particularly when everything was inflating, plus we had a lot of expedited shipping. When you think about the timing of our model year production, we typically see expedite started to rise in Q3 of last year as we were getting stuff ready for the changeover.

We are not seeing as much of that this year in expedited shipping. So that is what brought that Q3 to be deflationary here, down 5%. To your point on lane rates and freight rates, yes, we are seeing the same thing labor within the logistics area is staying high, but just the delta that we are – and the stability within expedited shipping or the control, I should say on expedited shipping, that is what brought Q3 down and what we foresee for Q4, as well.

Joseph Spak

Okay. That’s helpful. And then, second question is, I know in the release, you mentioned on the OpEx side, I think part of the year-over-year increase was higher LiveWire spend. Is there any way you could give us the total spend or the total loss for LiveWire this quarter?

And then, thinking about next quarter, and I know as now a standalone company, you are still consolidating it, like, are there higher public company costs that we should also consider on a go forward basis that starts to impact the OpEx of the overall consolidated enterprise?

Gina Goetter

Not different than what we’ve included in our guidance or our outlook for LiveWire or for Harley. Kind of what we talked about as – during Investor Day, all of that cost was included or the infrastructure was included.

The biggest thing that happened in LiveWire was people. So as we separated the business out and started to build that talent base kind of year-over-year, we are spending more on that infrastructure than we would have in the prior year.

Starting next quarter, like when we release our year-end and look at Q4, we’ll start to show the three segments, as we’ve talked about. We’ll have the motor company, excluding EV, we’ll have HDFS, the financing arm and then we’ll have LiveWire, as well. So we’ll start to see all three of those pieces.

Joseph Spak

Okay and can you give us like the total spend on LiveWire this quarter on an absolute basis?

Gina Goetter

On an absolute basis, the operating expense for the quarter, we spent roughly – call it, $20 million.

Joseph Spak

Okay. Thank you very much.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Jamie Katz with Morningstar. Please go ahead.

Jaime Katz

Hi, good morning. I’d be interested to hear how the appetite for financing has changed with significantly higher APRs across HDFS? And I do have a follow-up after that. Thanks.

Gina Goetter

In terms of, Jaime, morning, this is Gina. In terms of the appetite for financing, we are not — we’ve got to peel it back and look at the different types of customer or consumer. So from a prime applicant, we are still seeing good appetite.

We are seeing our shift of loans moving more towards prime. We are seeing in the subprime tiers less kind of people raising their hands saying they want loans unless we are becoming more stringent on the loans that we are giving out. So we are seeing kind of that mix shift in 2 ways: one, less people on the subprime side raising their hands and two, us funding and choosing to fund more prime.

Jaime Katz

Okay. And then, I assume that means that you are still financing roughly, I don’t know, 60% of the loans or whatever the prior number was that hasn’t changed materially.

Gina Goetter

Yes. Yes. Our penetration has stayed relatively consistent this year. So, right around that 65% mark. So all loans, all loans were 65% of them. So go back to the math of roughly 20% of folks are purchasing outright in cash and then of that remaining 80%, we are financing 65% of them.

Jaime Katz

Perfect and I have a quick follow-up on the H-D 1 change, bringing in other brands into the fold. Can you talk a little bit about how that helps you control the U.S. pricing market across the board a little bit more broadly?

Jochen Zeitz

Well, we – as I said, we wanted to expand the marketplace so that it becomes the leading marketplace for everything at some point in terms of bikes, which is why we don’t want to just offer HD bikes, but give our customers and dealers an opportunity to list their own bikes and we think this is a natural expansion of H-D 1 marketplace to expand on the reach and interest that we are building with our customers.

Jaime Katz

Thank you.

Operator

Your next question will come from the line of Ryan Sundby with William Blair. Please go ahead.

Ryan Sundby

Yeah, hey, good morning, guys. Really impressive growth for adventure-touring this quarter. Can you talk a little bit more about what you are seeing there? Is that all demand? Is there anything one-time in that number around maybe market expansion? And then, with A&S units nearly doubling this quarter, is there a way to help us think about maybe where adventure-touring ends up as a percentage of total units? Thanks.

Edel O’Sullivan

Good morning, Ryan. Thank you for your questions. Yes, adventure-touring brought us is an incredibly strong product we’ve put out in the market in a category that typically wouldn’t be what people would have originally thought about Harley-Davidson. So, again we are very proud of the development. It also suffered in the early parts of the year from availability as many of our other product families did and recovery, I think, in Q3 has been significant as those concerns have abated in terms of supply.

This is an important segment for us. It is a global – it is particularly prominent and important on a global basis, but it is also growing very strongly in North America where we think we have the right offerings, the right dealer network, the right support to be able to have this be another strong contender as that market continues to grow.

So our intent is to continue to support not only the adventure-touring product Pan America in and of itself, but also the ecosystem of experiences and consumers that go along with it. We see great potential for growth globally where it is an established segment and in North America as it grows.

Ryan Sundby

Great. And then, any thoughts there on kind of the percentage of total units that could ultimately represent for you guys over time?

Edel O’Sullivan

I think that evolves as the market growth potential does. We’ve certainly established a priority around our stronghold categories and that is – that will continue into the future. But adventure-touring again, is an incredibly important segment globally and it is growing in North America. So we think the potential there is significant for it to be an important part of our overall lineup domestically and internationally.

Ryan Sundby

Got it. Thanks. Thank you.

Jochen Zeitz

And just to add, of the 1,250 in the U.S., Pan America is still the number one selling motorcycle in its segment.

Operator

Your next question will come from the line of Brandon Rollé with D.A. Davidson. Please go ahead.

Brandon Rollé

Good morning. I was going to ask, could you comment on the current use versus new pricing gap and how that’s impacting the affordability of new bikes in the eye of the consumer? And then maybe touch on the success or plans you have to keep new buyers engaged that entered the industry during the pandemic moving forward? Thanks.

Edel O’Sullivan

Sorry, Brandon, I was on mute as I started speaking. So, let me go back over that.

Brandon Rollé

Okay.

Edel O’Sullivan

So were talking sorry – we probably had a gap there. We were talking about the balance of new versus used. So the gap in pricing, I think continues to be at a lower rate than historically. We have certainly seen the balance of new versus used within our dealer network change throughout the year as availability has modified.

So we expect that that will continue to be the dynamic going forward as availability and new changes and improve. However, it is important to note as Jochen was referencing in his previous answer around H-D 1 that both of these consumers, the new and the used buyer are important for our overall growth and part of the overall ecosystem of riding that we intend to establish and to continue to have it be a prominent part of our story, our growth story going forward. .

In terms of your question specifically around new riders that have entered the category and the sport over the past couple of years, we have spoken in this call over the past few quarters about the growth in Riding Academy. We continue to see very strong adoption rates and new riders of all kinds entering the sports.

And for us, it’s really about building that ecosystem of experiences in that community that goes beyond some of our traditional offerings by COG to really ensure that those consumers stay engaged in the way that is most relevant to them and that is both through digital touch points as well as through the incredible dealers and the experiences that they build all the way to the rallies and certainly in 2023 including our anniversary year events that we are very excited about. So lots of opportunities to continue to drive that engagement that keeps those new riders riding.

Operator

Our next question will come from the line of John Healy with Northcoast Research. Please go ahead.

John Healy

Thank you for taking the question. Big picture question, when I hear your remarks, the biggest thing that jumps out to me is just the commitment to being controlled with your production and being rational with the amount of product that you put into the industry. And if that works out, profitability per unit, if you can execute on some of these operational initiatives should be historically better than what we’ve seen in recent years.

Could you help us walk through what would prevent you guys from pulling that playbook off, because when I look at that opportunity set, to me, it seems like you control your destiny quite a bit there. So I am just trying to kind of game theory, what’s jumping out at you as being the biggest roadblocks to pulling that off?

And then, secondly, I think you maintained guidance for the HDFS business despite higher rates and I was just wondering what kind of the offset was as you look into year end? Thank you.

Jochen Zeitz

Well, the biggest obstacle is always demand in this regard. If you have a clear positioning as the most desirable lifestyle brand that is rooted in moto-culture demand – so, demand and I am talking motorcycles for a moment here is what drives our thinking all the time and we want to make sure that we are planning our manufacturing accordingly in order, of course, to capture demand, which was not always possible in the last couple of years due to the supply chain challenges, but also that we are agile to move as demand evolves in the next quarters.

It’s not just about demand management or supply management. Obviously, there is a lot more happening in H-D Marketplace, our digital drive and many other initiatives are in full swing to make sure that we broaden the consumer base, the customer base in the coming years. So there is a lot happening in this space, which is important.

So we want to make sure that our riders keep riding, that we bring new riders into the sport and that we overall are broadening our reach in the different consumer profiles, which is also why you see an extended effort on our parallel licensing business, which has shown nice growth, especially this quarter.

That’s a big initiative for us to broaden the consumer base because not everybody that is a fan of Harley necessarily rides yet may be riding in the future, but it might – that might just be a customer that believes in the lifestyle, loves the lifestyle, love the brands and wants to get engaged and therefore, there is a big effort there that I believe long term will help us also to get people more to get into the culture, into running cultured eventually become a rider and take them Riding Academy course.

They have more opportunities on the Riding Academy, as well, not just for new riders, it could be skilled riding and other things, adventure-touring lots of opportunities there that we are looking at experiences loyal shape, loyalty and membership are opportunities that we are exploring. So there is a lot happening.

It’s not just a question of capturing the demand and making sure that we are always the most desirable and pricing is up and inventory is at a healthy level. There is a lot that’s happening behind the scene and in front of the scene to really get customers to engage with the brand on a very different level than we’ve ever seen in the past.

Gina Goetter

And John, you had a question on HDFS. Could you repeat the question? I didn’t quite catch all of it.

John Healy

I think you guys maintained guidance for HDFS, your operating income for the year. But rates probably, I would think are a headwind given the original expectations. Just trying to understand the offsets.

Gina Goetter

Yes, good question. And yes, interest rates are definitely going against us and you can see that – you could really start to see that play through the P&L here in Q3 when you look at that interest expense line up pretty significantly year-over-year. That by the way, is going to continue to be a headwind for us as we move into Q4 and into 2023.

The offset has been in the revenue. So, not only we’ve had overall kind of receivables go up, plus all of the other revenue streams that impact HDFS have also been positive. So think of things like added insurance added, the credit cards, all of that revenue has been positive and helping to offset.

John Healy

Okay. Thank you.

End of Q&A

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. This concludes today’s call. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect.