The EURUSD has been trading in relatively tight ranges recently despite important economic data releases. The pair has found strong support at the 1.16 level as buyers stepped in on every move below. However, the bounces have been shallow and with little or no follow-through.
This week, the price action on the EURUSD is expected to increase dramatically as investors prepare for two crucial events that will impact the currency pair: the European Central Bank meeting, and the Federal Reserve of the United States (FED) meeting next week.
The Fed to Officially Announce Tapering
The Fed is set to officially announce the tapering of its asset purchases at next week’s meeting. Last Friday, the Fed’s chair said he believed that the time for tapering had come — but the EURUSD did not react, perhaps because the news came late on a Friday afternoon.
The statement is clearly hawkish for the dollar, and it should weigh on the EURUSD pair, especially since the ECB considers an opposite strategy. It will not taper yet; thus, the two monetary policies diverge.
The EURUSD is the most popular currency pair on the FX dashboard and one that sets the course for the dollar index. Despite finding buyers below 1.16 in the last weeks, the bias remains bearish heading into the two central banks meetings.
On Thursday, the focus sits with the ECB press conference and its staff’s economic projections. As always, projections for inflation expectations are key for the euro. On Friday, investors will start to prepare for the Fed meeting scheduled for next week, and if the ECB keeps its dovish bias, the chances are that the EURUSD will test its recent lows around the 1.15 level.
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