EUR/USD Rate Grinds Towards 2020 Low Ahead of NFP Report

EUR/USD Rate Talking Points

EUR/USD trades to a fresh weekly low (1.0821) ahead of the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, and the exchange rate may continue to exhibit a bearish behavior over the coming days as it extends the series of lower highs and lows from earlier this week.

EUR/USD Rate Grinds Towards 2020 Low Ahead of NFP Report

EUR/USD continues to chip away at the advance from the yearly low (1.0636)even though US Jobless Claims jumps a record 6.65M in the week ending March 28, and fresh updates to the NFP report may do little to curb the recent decline in the exchange rate as the US Dollar benefits from the flight to safety.

Nevertheless, US job growth is expected to contract 100K in March, which would mark the first decline since 2010, and the economic shock from the coronavirus may put pressure on the Federal Reserve to further support the economy as Fed officials anticipate a large pickup in unemployment.

Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester warns that the jobless rate could climb up to 15% during an interview with Bloomberg News, with the official going onto say that the US is likely to “see a big hit to output growth in the second quarter because we’ve shut the economy down.”

In turn, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) appears to be on track to further support the US economy as the central bank prepares a“Main Street Business Lending Program to support lending to eligible small-and-medium sized businesses,” and the policy meeting minutes on tap for April 8 may highlight a dovish forward guidance as Chairman Jerome Powell insists that the central bank is “prepared to use our full range of tools to support the flow of credit to households and business, to help keep the economy strong, and to promote our maximum employment and price stability goals.”

With that said, it remains to be seen if the unpreceded response by the FOMC will have the intended impact as the central bank relies on its unconventional tools to curb the weakening outlook for growth, but the recent rebound in EUR/USD may continue to unravel over the coming days as the exchange rate extends the series of lower highs and lows from earlier this week.

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EUR/USD Rate Daily Chart

Source: Trading View

• Keep in mind, the monthly opening range has been a key dynamic for EUR/USD in the fourth quarter of 2019 as the exchange rate carved a major low on October 1, with the high for November occurring during the first full week of the month, while the low for December happened on the first day of the month.
• The opening range for 2020 showed a similar scenario as EUR/USD marked the high of the month on January 2, with the exchange rate carving the February high during the first trading day of the month.
• However, the opening range for March was less relevant amid the pickup in volatility, with the pullback from the yearly high (1.1495) producing a break of the February low (1.0778) as the exchange rate slipped to a fresh 2020 low (1.0636).
• Nevertheless, the recent rebound in EUR/USD appears to have stalled amid the string of failed attempt to close above the 1.1140 (78.6% expansion) region, and the exchange rate may continue to exhibit a bearish behavior as it extends the series of lower highs and lows from earlier this week.
• Need a close below the Fibonacci overlap around 1.0830 (78.6% expansion) to 1.0860 (23.6% retracement) to bring the 1.0780 (100% expansion) region on radar, with the next area of interest coming around yearly low (1.0636) followed by the 1.0600 (161.8% expansion) handle.

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— Written by David Song, Currency Strategist

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