USD May Rise on Confidence Data, Retail Sales, Tariff Reduction

US Dollar Price Chart, Consumer Confidence Data, Retail Sales, Tariff Reduction – Talking Points

  • US Dollar may rise on consumer confidence, retail sales statistics
  • Tariff reduction may cool 2020 rate cut bets, boost market mood
  • EUR/USD hovering at three-year lows with room for more losses


The US Dollar may rise if preliminary consumer confidence data shows a buoyant spending disposition despite the influx of negative news about the coronavirus and political tensions between Iran and the US. In the world’s largest economy, consumption accounts for over 70 percent of growth, so naturally indicators that measure the relative strength or weakness in spending habits carries enormous market weight.

This has become particularly important as manufacturing – while showing signs of stabilization – is still hovering in low-growth territory despite a détente in US-China trade tensions. More on that later. On a similar topic, advanced retail sales figures for January will be published with expectations of a 0.3 percent print (ex-auto and gas). Better-than-expected readings could cool Fed easing measures and boost the Greenback.


The US and China are anticipated to lower tariffs against each other as part of a broad process of de-escalation embedded in “Phase 1” of their trade accord. While there are concerns that Beijing may renege on their obligations to purchase some goods from the US – potentially angering Washington – market attention appears to be more focused on the impact that the coronavirus will have on the Asian giant’s growth prospects.


The Euro may fall against the US Dollar ahead of the release of preliminary fourth quarter GDP data. On an annualized basis, analysts are expecting 1.0 percent growth, unchanged from the prior period. However, Eurozone economic data has been tending to underperform relative to economists’ expectations despite a brief moment of regional stabilization. If the GDP report falls in line with this trend, EUR/USD may suffer.


EUR/USD has experienced immense selling pressure as it shattered the November support range between 1.0989 and 1.0981 and is currently hovering at three-year lows. The pair is trading at the upper echelon of the 1.0783-1.0828 area which could either accelerate the selloff or lead to a recovery. Given the fundamental circumstances, the path of least resistance supports a bearish outlook for EUR/USD.

EUR/USD – Daily Chart

EUR/USD chart created using TradingView

EUR/USD – Weekly Chart

Chart showing EUR/USD

EUR/USD chart created using TradingView


— Written by Dimitri Zabelin, Jr Currency Analyst for

To contact Dimitri, use the comments section below or @ZabelinDimitrion Twitter

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