Japanese Yen Technical Price Outlook: DXY Weekly Trade Levels
- Japanese Yen technical trade levels update – weekly chart
- USD/JPY threatens breakout of multi-year downtrend resistance
- Price rally targeting initial objectives into the 2019 high-week close
The Japanese Yen has been on the defensive against the US Dollar for the past three weeks with USD/JPY rallying more than 2.6% off the monthly lows. The rally takes price through long-term downtrend resistance and threatens a larger shift the broader outlook IF price can mark a weekly close at these levels- simply put, we’re looking for validation. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the USD/JPY weekly price chart heading into the start of January trade. Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this gold price setup and more.
Starts in:
Live now:
Feb 24
( 13:02 GMT )
Live Weekly Strategy Webinars on Mondays at 12:30GMT
Weekly Scalping Webinar
Japanese Yen Price Chart – USD/JPY Weekly
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; USD/JPY on Tradingview
Notes: In our last Japanese Yen Weekly Price Outlook we noted that USD/JPY breakdown was, “testing the first major support zone into the start of the year at 107.71/84– look for a reaction here early in the month…” Price briefly registered a low at 107.65 before reversing sharply higher with the advance breaching resistance at the upper parallel of a broad multi-year descending pitchforkformation we’ve been tracking of the 2015 / 2017 highs. Is the breakout legit?
The focus is on the weekly close to validate with subsequent topside resistance objectives eyed at the 2019 high-week close at 111.54 and the 78.6% retracement / 2018 open / 2019 swing high at 112.39/59– look for a more significant reaction there IF reached. Initial support now back at 110.69 with bullish invalidation now set to the 2019 open at 109.68.


Recommended by Michael Boutros
Download our Q1Japanese Yen Trading Forecast!
For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy
Bottom line: The USD/JPY breakout is approaching initial resistance targets just higher. Look for a weekly close above 110.69 to validate the breakout / keep the long-bias in play. From a trading standpoint, look to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops on a test of 111.54- look for a reaction there for guidance. Ultimately, we’re on the lookout for downside exhaustion while above the yearly opening-range highs (110.30s) IF the Dollar is indeed heading higher. A close back below channel resistance would highlight the threat of a false-break scenario- use caution here. I’ll publish an updated Japanese Yen Price Outlook once we get further clarity on the near-term USD/JPY technical trade levels.
Japanese Yen Trader Sentiment – USD/JPY Price Chart
- A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short USD/JPY – the ratio stands at -1.36 (42.37% of traders are long) – weak bullish reading
- Long positions are3.63% lower than yesterday and 10.39% lower from last week
- Short positions are 12.16% lower than yesterday and 0.55% lower from last week
- We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests USD/JPY prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday but more net-short from last week and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a further mixed USD/JPY trading biasfrom a sentiment standpoint.
Change in | Longs | Shorts | OI |
Daily | -8% | -8% | -8% |
Weekly | -14% | 1% | -5% |
—
Previous Weekly Technical Charts


Recommended by Michael Boutros
New to Forex Trading? Get started with this Beginners Guide
— Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX
Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex
https://www.dailyfx.com/authors/bio/Michael_Boutros?ref-author=Boutros
Be the first to comment