The haven-linked US Dollar tumbled this past week, averaging its sharpest decline against a basket of its major counterparts since at least 1986. This is as Wall Street bounced with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 rallying the most over 5 days since 1974 and 2009 respectively. Anti-fiat gold prices also climbed, surging the most last week since 2008. Emerging market capital outflows cooled.
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The backdrop for this improvement in market sentiment during the coronavirus outbreak has been aggressive stimulus measures undertaken by not just the US, but also countries globally. Focusing on the former, the Federal Reserve introduced open-ended quantitative easing as the government worked together to pass a US$2 trillion virus relief bill to cushion the impact of the virus.
Going forward, markets will have to weigh stimulus against incoming data that will continue revealing the severity global growth is facing. The Euro has employment figures from Germany to watch as the United States releases March’s non-farm payrolls report. This follows a record rise in jobless claims. As April gets going, estimates point to the worst contraction in NFPs since 2010.
Before the coronavirus outbreak, global growth slowed over the past few years amid the US-China trade war. All eyes were on the world’s largest economy as it relatively outperformed. Now it holds the most cases of COVID-19, surpassing Italy and China. The longer the country embraces social isolation measures, the more consumption (2/3 of GDP) may weigh on domestic and international growth.
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Australian Dollar Boosted By Stimulus Hope, Coronavirus Stays in Charge
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Euro Forecast: More Gains on Way for EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, EUR/CHF?
The Euro was surprisingly firm last week against a range of other major currencies, suggesting resilience in the face of poor economic data and a lack of confidence.
US Dollar Correction in Play amid Failed Attempt to Test 2017 High
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Japanese Yen (JPY) Outlook: USD/JPY Poised For a Breakout
The ‘V-shaped’ recovery in USD/JPY just failed to hit its target and is now moving lower again. Important support is now being tested.
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British Pound Technical Forecast: GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, EUR/GBP
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Gold Price Outlook Hinges on 2013 High After Best Week Since 2008
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