Fahroni/iStock via Getty Images
Welcome to the December 2022 edition of the lithium miner news. The past month saw lithium prices fall back a little after about 2 years of almost continuous gains. It appears lithium demand is expected to fall a little in Q1, 2023 as China EV subsidies end in 2022.
We also saw lithium stocks harshly sold off in December as if the sky is falling!!! More on this in the conclusion.
Congratulations to Sayona Mining and Piedmont Lithium who this month have been upgraded to the lithium monthly news from the lithium junior news (as they will become lithium producers in either Q1 or Q2, 2023).
Lithium price news
Asian Metal reported during the past 30 days, the 99.5% China lithium carbonate spot price was down 4.06% and the China lithium hydroxide price was down 3.77%. The Lithium Iron Phosphate (Li 3.9% min) price was down 2.43%. The Spodumene (6% min) price was down 1.45% over the past 30 days.
Benchmark Mineral Intelligence reported China lithium prices of (battery grade carbonate – RMB 557,500 ($80,275), hydroxide RMB 560,000 ($80,650), and Benchmark stated (paywalled): “Cathode manufacturers continued to work through inventory rather than purchasing new material whilst waiting for clarity over the price trend, weighing on demand for battery grade carbonate from converters…amid reports to Benchmark that consumers remain cautious about Q1 2023 EV sales expectations in China.”
Note: The lithium price falls in CNY were in some cases a rise when converted into USD. For example, last month Benchmark reported: “hydroxide RMB 564,000 ($79,525).”
Metal.com reported lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) price of CNY 38,411 (~USD 5,496/mt), as of December 22, 2022.
On December 14 Pilbara Minerals reported the results of their latest 10,000t spodumene BMX auction achieving an equivalent price of US$8,299/DMT (SC6.0, CIF CHINA).
China Lithium carbonate spot price 5 year chart – CNY 547,500 (~USD 78,341)
Trading Economics
Wood Mackenzie’s lithium price forecast – July 2022 (Source)
Mineral Resources presentation courtesy Wood Mackenzie
Lithium demand versus supply outlook
2022 – UBS lithium demand v supply forecast to 2030
UBS
Lithium demand v supply forecast by Benchmark Mineral Intelligence (mid 2022 forecast)
BMI
Fastmarkets lithium demand v supply forecast (as of 2022) (Source)
Stockhead courtesy Fastmarkets
BMI (Q2, 2022 forecast) – Lithium demand to exceed supply mostly this decade
Winsome Resources courtesy BMI
Trend Investing v IEA demand forecast for EV metals (Trend Investing) (IEA)
Trend Investing
2021 IEA forecast growth in demand for selected minerals from clean energy technologies by scenario, 2040 relative to 2020 – Increases Of Lithium 13x to 42x, Graphite 8x to 25x, Cobalt 6x to 21x, Nickel 7x to 19x, Manganese 3x to 8x, Rare Earths 3x to 7x, And Copper 2x to 3x
IEA
Rio Tinto forecasts lithium emerging supply gap (October 2021) – 60 new mines the size of Jadar will be needed
Rio Tinto
BMI demand growth 2022-2035 (in mtpa) for critical metals, also number of new mines required by 2035
BMI
Lithium market and battery news
On November 25 CleanTechnica reported:
BYD may begin sodium-ion battery production in 2023. Reports from China suggest BYD may be the first manufacturer to bring electric cars with sodium-ion batteries to market…Rumors are flying about in China that claim BYD plans to be producing sodium-ion battery cells in the second quarter of 2023 and use them to power some of its own electric vehicles. The company claims those rumors are false…Sodium batteries have one important drawback, however. They have a lower energy density than lithium batteries, so you need more of them to have an equivalent amount of energy available to power an electric car…The lower power density will probably be less of a factor at the lower end of the market where the primary factor in the decision to purchase an electric car is price rather than performance.
On November 28 Construction News UK reported:
Green light for £200m Teesside lithium factory. Tees Valley Lithium (TVL), a subsidiary of Alkemy Capital Investments, was given the green light to develop a lithium hydroxide refinery at the Wilton International Chemical Park at Teesside Freeport. The plant, which will be the largest in Europe when built…and supply lithium for up to 15 per cent of Europe’s electric-vehicle market. The refinery will be capable of producing both lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate sourced from imported high-grade feedstock from South America and lithium producers located in Australia and elsewhere. Construction of the plant is expected to commence in 2023.
On November 29 Reuters reported:
Indonesia says lithium, anode plants are being built to support EV ambitions. Indonesia is building a lithium refinery and an anode material production facility to complement its nickel-based battery materials industry, an official said, as it aims to set itself up as a hub for making electric vehicles (EVs).
On December 1 Seeking Alpha reported:
ProShares launches an ETF meant to capitalize on the growing demand for batteries…ProShares is looking to capture with the launch of the ProShares S&P Global Core Battery Metals ETF (ION). The fund, which hit the market on Thursday, offers exposure to global stocks involved in the mining of lithium, nickel or cobalt. According to ProShares research, global demand for batteries is anticipated to expand by 25% annually until at least 2030.
On December 5 Market Index reported: “Lithium price support from Chinese production cuts: Macquarie.
- A leading Chinese lepidolite producer suspended production last week due to environmental concerns.
- Regulators are investigating a water pollution incident, with no timeline for production redemption.
- Macquarie views the issue as a potential downside risk to China’s lepidolite output, which could lead to an ‘even tighter lithium market’.”
On December 6 BloombergNEF reported:
Lithium-ion battery pack prices rise for first time to an average of $151/kWh. Rising raw material and battery component prices and soaring inflation have led to the first ever increase in lithium-ion battery pack prices since BloombergNEF (BNEF) began tracking the market in 2010…For battery electric vehicle (BEV) packs in particular, prices were $138/kWh on a volume-weighted average basis in 2022…Prices could have risen further in 2022 had it not been for the higher adoption of the low-cost cathode chemistry known as LFP… LFP cells were 20% cheaper than lithium nickel manganese cobalt oxide (NMC) cells in 2022.
On December 8 Seeking Alpha reported:
Lithium prices could climb higher, helped by U.S. climate bill, execs say… “Everybody needs lithium,” so pricing will remain strong, Albemarle (NYSE:ALB) executive Eric Norris told Bloomberg at the conference, adding the U.S. climate bill may “reignite our M&A.”…The company is looking at targets in jurisdictions such as Canada and Australia, which have free trade agreements with the U.S., Norris said… Goldman sees the global lithium market in an 84K-ton deficit this year, compared with a prior forecast of an 8K-ton surplus…
On December 8 Finance News Network reported:
Lithium stocks under pressure following Goldman’s comments… Goldman Sachs said it expects lithium prices to fall over the second half of 2023 and into 2024 as the supply and demand outlook rebalances. Goldman Sachs has initiated coverage on several players. The company has a sell recommendation and $1 price target on Core Lithium [ASX:CXO], which has sent the stock down 6 per cent today. Conversely, Goldmans has a Buy rating on Allkem (ASX:AKE), with a $15.20 price target, along with Mineral Resource (ASX:MIN). It has neutral ratings on Pilbara Minerals (ASX:PLS), Independence Group (ASX:IGO) and Liontown (ASX:LTR).
On December 9 Reuters reported:
Exclusive: Canada aims to speed up new projects with critical minerals strategy…The government pledged to review the permitting process with an eye on cutting the time required to bring mines online by avoiding duplication and ensuring early indigenous consultation and engagement, the 58-page strategy document said. It did not say when the review would be completed.
On December 9 the Government of Canada announced:
Minister Wilkinson releases Canada’s $3.8-billion Critical Minerals Strategy to seize generational opportunity for clean, inclusive growth…Today, in Vancouver, the Honourable Jonathan Wilkinson, Canada’s Minister of Natural Resources, released Canada’s Critical Minerals Strategy, backed by up to $3.8 billion in federal funding allocated in Budget 2022. The proposed funding covers a range of industrial activities, from geoscience and exploration to mineral processing, manufacturing and recycling applications, including support for research, development and technological deployment.
On December 13 Reuters reported: “Western countries forge green alliance for getting electric vehicle minerals.”
On December 13 Investing News reported:
“Caspar Rawles: Cathodes, anodes and what to expect in 2023… “Fundamentally, one of the challenges that potentially plays into all of this, is that you can build the battery plants, you can build the EV plants, you can build the cathode plants, but if you don’t have the raw materials to feed them, they’re just expensive weights on your balance sheet,” Rawles said.
On December 14 Forbes reported:
Tesla cofounder aims to rev up U.S. EV battery market with $3.5 billion South Carolina Plant. Redwood Materials, the battery recycling and components maker created and run by Tesla cofounder JB Straubel, is accelerating its push to build a U.S. supply base for critical components for electric vehicle batteries…The Carson City, Nevada-based company, which last month said it would supply lithium-ion cathodes to Panasonic from a $1.1 billion plant under construction in its home state, is acquiring 600 acres in Camp Hall, an industrial park near Charleston, for an East Coast complex that will eventually employ 1,500 people. The “closed-loop” facility will recycle and recover high-value metals from used batteries and turn them into cathode and anode materials needed by new battery plants…
On December 18 Mining.com reported:
Australia expects sharp lithium price pullback in 2024. In its quarterly report released on Monday, the Australian government said it expects spodumene prices to rise from an average of $2,730 a tonne in 2022 (from just $598 in 2021) to average $4,010 a tonne in 2023 as record spot prices feed into contracts. However, 2024 will see a softening in the market to $3,130 in 2024. Lithium hydroxide prices are set to follow a similar pattern and are expected to lift from $17,370 a tonne in 2021 to $39,900 in 2022 and $61,200 in 2023, moderating to an annual average of $48,500 in 2024.
On December 19 Investing News reported:
Lithium market 2022 year-end review…Lithium prices remained at all-time highs in 2022 as electric vehicle (EV) demand jumped and supply tightness increased. The key raw material used in batteries took center stage this past year, and from bearish oversupply calls from banks to lithium stocks seeing gains, it was an eventful 12 month period for the sector…Patki’s demand estimate for 2023 is that the industry will need a million tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent. “Again, whether there’s supply that will be able to meet that, that’s the big question,” he said… For the business development director at Livent, if supply cannot catch up, demand will be deferred, not destroyed…For lithium miners trying to develop projects and bring supply on stream, financing continues to be a big hurdle… “Funding has happened, but it’s not happening still at a rate that anyone needs. Institutional money is still not as aggressive as it should be,” said Simon Moores of Benchmark Mineral Intelligence. “And then, if they get the money to take it to the permitting stage, then permitting is a massive hurdle — it can add 50 percent of the time onto building your mine.”
On December 21 PRNewswire reported:
CATL’s German plant kicks off cell production. Contemporary Amperex Technology Thuringia GmbH (CATT), CATL’s first plant outside of China, has kicked off serial production of lithium-ion battery cells in December as scheduled, marking another milestone on CATL’s global journey… With a total investment of up to 1.8 billion Euro, CATL plans to achieve a production capacity of 14GWh.
Lithium miner news
Albemarle (NYSE:ALB)
On December 13, Albemarle announced:
Albemarle announces North Carolina Technology Park for advanced lithium technology…where it will invest at least $180 million to establish the Albemarle Technology Park (ATP), a world-class facility designed for novel materials research, advanced process development, and acceleration of next-generation lithium products to market. The company anticipates that innovations from the new site will enhance lithium recovery, improve production methods, and introduce new forms of lithium to enable breakthrough levels of battery performance.
Sociedad Quimica y Minera S.A. (NYSE:SQM), Wesfarmers [ASX:WES] (OTCPK:WFAFY), Covalent Lithium (SQM/WES JV)
No significant news for the month.
Upcoming catalysts:
Q4, 2023 – Mt Holland spodumene production to begin (SQM/Wesfarmers JV).
Q4, 2024 – 50ktpa Lithium hydroxide [LiOH] refinery (SQM/Wesfarmers JV).
Investors can read SQM’s latest presentation here or the latest Trend Investing article on SQM here.
Jiangxi Ganfeng Lithium [SHE:002460] [HK: 1772] (OTCPK:GNENF) (OTCPK:GNENY)
No significant news for the month.
Investors can read the latest Trend Investing article on Ganfeng Lithium here.
(Chengdu) Tianqi Lithium Industries Inc. [SHE:002466], Tianqi Lithium Energy Australia (TLEA) is a JV with Tianqi Lithium (51%) and IGO Limited (49%). TLEA owns the Kwinana lithium hydroxide facility in WA
On December 7, Reuters reported:
China’s Tianqi exploring battery minerals processing options in Australia. China’s Tianqi Lithium Corp is exploring investment opportunities in Australia’s burgeoning battery minerals sector through its local tie up with Western Australia-based (WA) miner IGO Ltd, its chief executive said… “WA already export(s) all the minerals needed to make batteries. There is enormous environmental and economic benefit in successfully developing downstream processing capabilities near the source of those resources,” Tianqi CEO Frank Ha said in a statement late on Tuesday.
On December 19, Market Screener reported: “Tianqi Lithium Corporation (SEHK: 9696) added to FTSE All-World Index.”
On December 19, Market Screener reported: “Tianqi Lithium Corporation(SEHK:9696) added to S&P Global BMI Index.”
Kwinana lithium refinery JV (51% Tianqi: 49% IGO) in Western Australia
IGO Limited
Pilbara Minerals [ASX:PLS] (OTC:PILBF)
On November 28, Pilbara Minerals announced:
Pilbara and Calix enter into Joint Venture Agreement for Mid–Stream Demonstration Plant. Parties to jointly develop a “mid-stream” demonstration plant at the Pilgangoora Project…
On December 2, Pilbara Minerals announced: “Index announcement S&P Dow Jones Indices announces December 2022 Quarterly Rebalance of the S&P/ASX Indices.”
On December 14, Pilbara Minerals announced:
Results of BMX auction. Following the auction process the Company has sold two cargoes for a combined total of 10,000dmt at an average price of US$7,552/dmt (SC5.5, FOB Port Hedland basis). The equivalent SC6.0 price negotiated equates to a price inclusive of freight, CIF to China of US$8,299/dmt, with deliveries expected from late January 2023.
On December 21, Pilbara Minerals announced: “Offtake pricing and project expansion update. Customer price reviews achieve improved pricing outcomes; P680 expansion project schedule on track with revised capital cost estimate.” Highlights include:
- “Price reviews completed with major offtake customers, resulting in improved pricing outcomes, equating to an average SC6.0 equivalent price of approximately US$6,300/DMT (CIF China) when applying current pricing reference data.
- P680 Expansion Project delivery schedule remains on target with the total capital cost estimate revised to ~A$404M. The estimated capital cost to deliver an additional 100ktpa of spodumene concentrate by way of a new primary rejection heavy media separation circuit (Primary Rejection) has been revised to A$150M, whilst the new integrated crushing and ore sorting (Crushing and Ore Sorting) facility which will support future expansions is now expected to cost A$254M.
- The Primary Rejection facility remains on track for commissioning in the September 2023 Quarter, with the Company focused on delivering this additional 100ktpa of production capacity as rapidly as possible to take advantage of favourable market conditions. The Crushing and Ore Sorting facility also remains on track for commissioning in the December 2023 Quarter and will support future expansions at the Pilgan Plant which will ultimately deliver 1Mtpa of spodumene concentrate from the combined Pilgangoora operations.
- Pre-FID funding of $38M for the P1000 Expansion Project approved by the Board to procure long-lead items and progress engineering to maintain the overall project schedule, with the Final Investment Decision for the P1000 Project now scheduled for the March 2023 Quarter.“
Upcoming catalysts:
- Q4, 2023 – P680 Expansion Project set to begin production.
- Late 2023 – Plan to commission production of POSCO/Pilbara Minerals (18%, option to increase to 30%) JV LiOH facility in Korea.
Mineral Resources [ASX:MIN] (OTCPK:MALRF)
Mt Marion Mine (50% MIN: 50% Ganfeng). Wodgina Lithium Mine (60% ALB: 40% MIN) restarted in mid 2022. (Note the non-binding agreement will (if completes) move Wodgina to a 50% ALB: 50% MIN JV). The 50ktpa Kemerton Lithium Hydroxide refinery (60% ALB: 40% MIN) is due for first sales in H2, 2022.
No lithium news for the month.
Investors can read the latest Trend Investing article on Mineral Resources here.
MinRes’ production expansion targets as of Nov. 2022 (source) – Includes doubling Mt Marion capacity from 450-900ktpa in early 2023 and Wodgina from 500ktpa to 750ktpa (Train 3 adds 250ktpa) by mid 2023
Mineral Resources 2022 AGM presentation
Livent Corp. (LTHM)[GR:8LV]
On November 29, Livent Corp. announced:
Livent and NTU Singapore announce research partnership to accelerate innovation in Sustainable Lithium Battery Technologies…
Allkem [ASX:AKE] [TSX:AKE] (OTCPK:OROCF)(formerly Orocobre)
On December 16, Allkem announced:
Allkem completes acquisition of strategic lithium tenement and the sale of Borax…MSR has sold to an Allkem subsidiary 100% ownership of the Maria Victoria Tenement…Managing Director and CEO Martin Perez de Solay said, “The Maria Victoria tenement is expected to add resource tonnes to the already substantial lithium brine resource defined at Olaroz. Control of this tenement will enable the more efficient development of the Olaroz salar as we consider the long term expansion of production.”… The Maria Victoria Tenement covers approximately 1,800 ha and is located in the northern part of the Salar de Olaroz, approximately 10km from Allkem’s Olaroz Lithium Facility.
Upcoming catalysts include:
- Late 2022 – Naraha to begin commercial production.
- H1, 2022 – Olaroz Stage 2 expansion commissioning followed by a 2 year ramp to 25ktpa. When combined with Stage 1 total capacity will be 42.5ktpa.
- Late 2023 – Sal De Vida Stage 1 production targeted to begin and ramp to 15ktpa. SDV Stage 2&3 combined will begin about 2025 and ramp to an additional 30ktpa. Total combined when completed will be 45ktpa.
- Mid 2024 – James Bay production targeted to start.
You can read the latest investor presentation here. You can read the latest Trend Investing Allkem article here.
AMG Advanced Metallurgical Group NV [NA:AMG] [GR:ADG] (OTCPK:AMVMF)
On December 22 AMG announced:
AMG Advanced Metallurgical Group N.V. announces tantalum Strategic Partnership with Nippon Mining & Metals Corporation.
Upcoming catalysts:
- Q4, 2022 – Lithium-vanadium battery (“LIVA”) for the energy storage market to be ready.
- End Q4, 2022 – New vanadium spent catalyst recycling facility in Zanesville, Ohio to be commissioned.
- H2, 2023 – Stage 2 production at Mibra Lithium-Tantalum mine (additional 40ktpa) forecast to begin, bringing total production capacity to 130ktpa.
- Q4, 2023 – Lithium hydroxide facility in Bitterfeld-Wolfen Germany to be commissioned. First module to be 20,000tpa LiOH.
- 2023 –> Saudi Arabia vanadium Projects JV with Shell & Aramco.
- 2025-2028 – German LiOH facility expansion with Modules 2-5 (100,00tpa LiOH.
You can view the latest company presentation here or the recent Trend Investing article here.
Lithium Americas [TSX:LAC] (LAC)
On December 20, Lithium Americas announced:
Lithium Americas to acquire Arena Minerals to consolidate the highly prospective Pastos Grandes Basin…Pursuant to the Arrangement Agreement, Arena’s shareholders (“Arena Shareholders”) will receive 0.0226 (the “Exchange Ratio”) of a Lithium Americas common share (a “LAC Share”) for each Arena Share held (the “Consideration”). The Consideration to Arena implies a total equity transaction value (on a 100% basis) of US$227 million (C$311 million), based on the closing price on December 19, 2022, which would result in Arena Shareholders owning approximately 5.7% of Lithium Americas.
Upcoming catalysts:
- Q1, 2023 – Record of Decision (“ROD”) for Thacker Pass. The US District Court, District of Nevada has an oral hearing for January 5, 2023.
- Q1 2023 – Thacker Pass FS.
- H2 2022 – Cauchari-Olaroz lithium production to commence and ramp to 40ktpa. From 2025 a Stage 2 20ktpa+ expansion is planned.
- 2025 – Possible lithium clay producer from Thacker Pass Nevada (full ramp by 2027/28).
NB: Ganfeng Lithium (51%) and Lithium Americas (49%) own the JV company Minera Exar S.A., which owns 91.5% interest and is entitled to 100% of the production from the Cauchari-Olaroz Project. The 8.5% interest is owned by Jujuy Energia y Mineria Sociedad del Estado (“JEMSE”) (a company owned by the Government of Jujuy province).
Argosy Minerals [ASX:AGY][GR:AM1] (OTCPK:ARYMF)
Argosy has an interest in the Rincon Lithium Project in Argentina, targeting a fast-track development strategy. Argosy initially plans to ramp to 2,000tpa lithium carbonate starting early 2023.
On December 8 BNAmericas reported:
Argosy Minerals to invest US$200mn in Argentina’s Salar Rincón phase III…Puna Mining, a unit of Australia’s Argosy Minerals, plans to invest US$200mn in phase III of the Salar Rincón project in Argentina’s Salta province to reach production of 12,000t/y of lithium carbonate.
On December 22, Argosy Minerals announced: “Rincon 2,000tpa Li2CO3 operational update. 99.76% lithium carbonate product produced during commissioning operations.” Highlights include:
- “Confirmation of ‘battery quality’ 99.76% lithium carbonate product produced from Argosy’s 2,000tpa operation during commissioning works.
- 2,000tpa plant commissioning works currently progressing, with lithium carbonate production operations ramp-up phase scheduled during next quarter.
- Validation of chemical processing technology for continued development at Rincon.
- Argosy on-track to become only the second ASX-listed battery quality lithium carbonate producer.”
Upcoming catalysts:
- Q1 2023 – Rincon Lithium production to begin ramping to 2,000tpa.
Investors can view the company’s latest investor presentation here, and the latest Trend Investing Argosy Minerals article here.
Core Lithium Ltd. [ASX:CXO] [GR:7CX] (OTC:CORX)(OTCPK:CXOXF)
Core 100% own the Finniss Lithium Project (Grants Resource) in Northern Territory Australia. Significantly they already have an off-take partner with China’s Yahua (large market cap, large lithium producer), who has signed a supply deal with Tesla (TSLA). The Company states they have a “high potential for additional resources from 500km2 covering 100s of pegmatites.” Fully funded and starting mining with a planned Q4 2022 production start.
On November 11, Core Lithium Ltd. announced: “Australasian Metals establishes research consortium in North Arunta Pegmatite district, Northern Territory.” Highlights include:
- “Research consortium formed with Core Lithium Limited (ASX:CXO), through the Centre for Exploration Targeting, University of Western Australia (UWA), and other NT lithium explorers to focus on the North Arunta Pegmatite district.
- This will help define a mineralisation framework for rare metal pegmatites in the highly prospective region.
- Mining Management Plan (MMP) approved for diamond drilling at the Mt Peake Lithium project by the Northern Territory Department of Industry, Tourism and Trade.
- The MMP approval allows A8G to move forward on plans for a maiden drill program at Mt Peake, testing well-defined target in northwest of EL32830.”
On December 16, Core Lithium Ltd. announced: “Finniss Project exploration results.” Highlights include:
- “Promising results from the drilling of, Hang Gong and Bilatos prospects close to existing Finniss operations.
- Far West and Hang Gong are adjacent to the Grants DMS processing plant and Bilatos is within trucking distance 22km south.
- Shallow mineralisation confirmed at Bilatos.
- Selected drill intersections include: Bilatos: 61m @ 0.87% Li2O in SRC094 (from 48m)…Far West: 12m @ 1.66% Li2O in FRC300 (Far West Central) from 124m and 8m @ 1.56% Li2O in FRC299 (Far West North) from 137m. Hang Gong: 11m @ 1.36% Li2O in FRC345 (from 179m), 7m @ 1.86 Li2O in FRC346 (from 157m) and 10m @ 1.35% Li2O in FRC351 (from 182m).“
Investors can read a company presentation here, or the Trend Investing article when Core Lithium was back at A$0.055 here.
Catalysts include:
- H1 2023 – Lithium spodumene concentrate production at Finniss targeted to begin.
Sigma Lithium Resources [TSXV:SGML] (SGMLF) (SGML)
Sigma is developing a world class lithium hard rock deposit with exceptional mineralogy at its Grota do Cirilo Project in Brazil.
On December 4, Sigma Lithium Resources announced:
Sigma Lithium achieves outstanding project expansion and financing milestones: Increases mineral reserves by 63%, triples NPV to US$ 15.3billion and secures US$ 100 million debt financing…
On December 20, Sigma Lithium Resources announced:
Sigma lithium successfully initiates commissioning of Greentech Plant on schedule and within budget…
Catalysts include:
- Late 2022 – Commissioning at the Grota do Cirilo Project.
- April 2023 – Commercial production targeted to begin at the Grota do Cirilo Project in Brazil and ramp to 531,000tpa spodumene (Stage 1 and 2 combined).
Investors can read the latest company presentation here or the Trend Investing article here back when Sigma was trading at C$5.00.
Sigma Lithium has very large production plans (source)
Sigma Lithium
Sayona Mining [ASX:SYA] (OTCQB:SYAXF)
On November 24, Sayona Mining announced: “NAL restart picks up speed.” Highlights include:
- “Restart of North American Lithium (NAL) further advances, with procurement 98% completed and permitting 96% finalised as of end October.
- Construction ramping up, with final installations of HP300 and HP400 cone crushers together with other major equipment.
- NAL operation on track for restart of production in Q1 2023, as Sayona continues building largest lithium resource base in North America.“
On December 12, Sayona Mining announced: “Final permit awarded for NAL restart.” Highlights include:
- “Final permit awarded for restart of North American Lithium (NAL) operation in Québec.
- NAL equipment and facilities significantly upgraded ahead of recommencement of spodumene (lithium) production in Q1 2023.
- Sayona on track to become only producer of lithium concentrate in Québec, with plans to move downstream into lithium carbonate/hydroxide production amid accelerating demand.“
On December 20, Sayona Mining announced:
Morella completes earn-in requirements for Pilbara lithium assets. Morella satisfies both expenditure and activity requirements covering several lithium projects in Western Australia. Joint venture to be formed with partner Sayona Mining Limited with Morella to hold 51% managing stake and Sayona 49%. Work to date has identified three (3) highly prospective targets at the Mallina, Tabba Tabba and Mount Edon projects.
On December 20, Sayona Mining announced: “NAL restart advances towards target.” Highlights include:
- “Restart of North American Lithium [NAL] operation further progresses towards target, with procurement and permitting completed.
- Construction ramping up, including installation of Apron Feeder and Derrick screens, with contracts awarded for all critical installation items, including Belt Filter.
- NAL operation on track for restart of production in Q1 2023, cementing Québec’s position as North America’s key supplier of essential battery minerals.“
Upcoming catalysts include:
- Q1 2023 – Restart of NAL (SYA 75%: PLL 25%) operations.
Piedmont Lithium (Nasdaq:PLL) [ASX:PLL]
Piedmont Lithium 100% own the Carolina Lithium spodumene project in North Carolina, USA; as well as 25% of the North American Lithium [NAL] Project in Canada and 50% of the Ghana Lithium Project.
On December 12 Piedmont Lithium reported:
North American Lithium receives remaining permit required to restart mining operations…Receipt of the key permit from Canada’s Department of Fisheries and Oceans paves the way for an expected restart of spodumene concentrate production in H1 2023…
Upcoming catalysts include:
- 2022 – Carolina Lithium – Possible further off-take, permitting or project funding announcements.
- Q1 2023 – NAL (25% PLL, 50% off-take PLL) production set to begin.
- Q3, 2024 – Ghana Project (50% PLL) targeted to begin.
You can view the company’s latest presentation here or a Trend Investing article here.
Lithium miner ETFs
The LIT fund was down heavily in December. The current PE is 19.59.
Our model forecast is for lithium demand to increase 5.3x between end 2020 and end 2025 to ~1.8m tpa, and 13x this decade to reach ~4.5 m tpa by end 2029 (assumes electric car market share of 32% by end 2025 and 70% by end 2029).
Note: A Nov. 2020 UBS forecast is for “lithium demand to lift 11-fold from ~400kt in 2021 through to 2030.”
Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETF (LIT) 10 year price chart
Seeking Alpha
- The Amplify Lithium & Battery Technology ETF (BATT) is currently on a PE of 13.03. It is a well diversified fund.
- ProShares S&P Global Core Battery Metals ETF (ION) is currently on a PE of 6.34 as of 25 October 2022. It focuses on “companies which derived positive revenue and had positive production value, in aggregate, from the mining of lithium, nickel or cobalt over the previous year, and have a minimum market capitalization of at least $100 million USD, and meet certain liquidity requirements.”
Conclusion
December saw lithium prices fall slightly and lithium miners very harshly sold off. 2022 has certainly been a wild year.
- Livent now trades at a 17% lower price than a year ago, yet the China lithium spot price has increased 115% over the past year. At US$20.65 it has a price target of US$33.71, for 63% potential upside. – What???
- Another is Pilbara Minerals trading on a 2023 PE of 5.35x with massive expansion plans underway. A 5x price earnings for a massive growth stock – Really!!!
- Or finally Sigma Lithium announced a stunning NPV of US$15.3b on December 4, 2022, yet the stock is now lower than when they made the announcement. – Huh!!!
Go figure!!! We are talking about lithium, a specialty chemical with demand forecast by Trend Investing to increase a staggering 35x between 2020 and 2037 (the IEA forecast is for a 13-42x increase from 2020 to 2040).
Highlights for the month were:
- BYD may begin sodium-ion battery production in 2023 – report. BYD says the rumors are false.
- Green light for £200m Teesside lithium factory in the UK.
- Indonesia says lithium, anode plants are being built to support EV ambitions.
- Macquarie: Lithium price support from Chinese lepidolite production cuts.
- BloombergNEF: Lithium-ion battery pack prices rise for first time to an average of $151/kWh.
- Lithium prices could climb higher, helped by U.S. climate bill, execs say.
- Goldman Sachs said it expects lithium prices to fall over the second half of 2023 and into 2024 as the supply and demand outlook rebalances.
- Canada aims to speed up new projects with critical minerals strategy.
- Minister Wilkinson releases Canada’s $3.8-billion Critical Minerals Strategy to seize generational opportunity for clean, inclusive growth.
- Tesla co-founder J B Straubel’s Redwood Materials plans $3.5 billion battery recycling plant in South Carolina, USA.
- Australia expects sharp lithium price pullback in 2024.
- Lithium market in review – Patki’s demand estimate for 2023 is that the industry will need a million tonnes of LCE. “Again, whether there’s supply that will be able to meet that, that’s the big question…”
- Albemarle announces North Carolina Technology Park for advanced lithium technology.
- China’s Tianqi exploring battery minerals processing options in Australia.
- Pilbara Minerals and Calix enter into JV Agreement for Mid–Stream Demonstration Plant. Price reviews completed with major offtake customers resulting in improved pricing outcomes averaging US$6,300/DMT (CIF China) when applying current pricing reference data.
- Allkem completes acquisition of strategic Maria Victoria lithium tenement and the sale of Borax Argentina.
- Lithium Americas to acquire Arena Minerals to consolidate the highly prospective Pastos Grandes Basin.
- Argosy Minerals to invest US$200mn in Argentina’s Salar Rincón phase III to reach 12ktpa lithium carbonate production. Rincon 2,000tpa Li2CO3 operation – 99.76% lithium carbonate product produced during commissioning operations.
- Sigma Lithium increases mineral reserves by 63%, triples post-tax NPV8% to US$ 15.3b for the three stage project. Sigma lithium successfully initiates commissioning of Greentech Plant on schedule and within budget.
- North American Lithium (SYA & PLL) receives remaining permit required to restart mining operations. NAL operation on track for restart of production in Q1 2023.
As usual all comments are welcome.
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