Further Losses Probable, No-Deal Brexit Comes Closer


GBP price, Brexit news and analysis:

  • GBP/USD and the GBP crosses will likely suffer further losses as the EU and the UK continue to bicker on their relationship post-Brexit.
  • As a new round of talks begins, the UK is stepping up its no-deal preparations and is reportedly tinkering with the withdrawal agreement already reached.

GBP/USD under downside pressure

Indications that the EU and the UK are moving even further apart in the negotiations on their post-Brexit relationship will likely lead to further losses for GBP/USD and the GBP crosses even though the latest spat could just be posturing, and a deal could yet be reached.

The Brexit talks are underway again in London this week and the UK has set a deadline of October 15 to strike a trade deal with the EU. It has also warned the EU that it is gearing up preparations to leave without a deal.

Moreover, the UK is reported to be planning new legislation to override part of the withdrawal agreement signed in January, and while this turbulent background has already weakened GBP/USD there are few signs yet that a recovery is imminent.

GBP/USD Price Chart, Two-Hour Time Frame (September 1-8, 2020)

Chart by IG (You can click on it for a larger image)

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Moreover, according to data from Reuters, Brexit nerves have boosted GBP/USD implied one-month volatility to 10% for the first time since mid-June. This implies a turbulent few weeks for traders in the pair who must decide whether the latest war of words is just rhetoric, and that a deal will be reached eventually, or whether the current implementation period will end without an agreement.



of clients are net long.



of clients are net short.

Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 13% 7% 9%
Weekly 12% -2% 3%

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— Written by Martin Essex, Analyst

Feel free to contact me on Twitter @MartinSEssex

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