EUR/USD Near Three Month Lows Ahead of ECB Policy Review

Euro (EUR/USD) Price, Chart, and Analysis

• EUR/USD remains on edge and may fade lower.
• European Central Bank (ECB) Strategy Review now key.

The ECB will release its keenly-awaited monetary policy strategy review at 11:00 GMT today, followed by a press conference and Q&A session with President Christine Lagarde and Vice-President Luis de Guindos at 12:30 GMT. The review will likely add clarification to the central bank’s inflation target with the wording of price stability expected to change from ‘below but close to 2%’ to ‘inflation of 2%’. The ECB may add also add that the 2% target is an average target and/or add a timeframe that they will watch moves in inflation before reacting. The ECB is also expected to give more detail on its climate change policy and any potential changes in its bond-buying program. The outcome of the review is likely to set a course for the single currency in the months and years ahead, especially if the central bank continues with its ultra-accommodative monetary policy.

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The six-week sell-off in EUR/USD continues with the pair printing a fresh three-month low on Wednesday. The chart set-up remains negative, highlighted by the sharp move lower in the 20-day simple moving average (red line) with little support seen until March 31 swing low at 1.1704. This level sits just above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level around 1.1695. Below here horizontal support from the November 4 swing low at 1.16025.

EUR/USD Daily Price Chart (June 2020 – July 8, 2021)

Retail trader data show 58.87% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.43 to 1.The number of traders net-long is 4.64% lower than yesterday and 2.93% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.79% lower than yesterday and 3.29% lower from last week. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests EUR/USD prices may continue to fall.

Positioning is less net-long than yesterday but more net-long from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EUR/USD trading bias.

What is your view on EUR/USD – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1.