End of the China Bull? Part 2.

Meanwhile, clowns want to post threads about when will they close the market’s.
Really wish @Joe Blow would just disappear that thread…. Chinese government style…

Free speech is adding to the panic in this situation.

I respect that you may quite strongly disagree with my opinion here. Please be assured however that it’s nothing personal. :)

I have nothing against Chinese people or against China per se but things are almost certainly going to become incredibly painful in that regard.

The seven stages of grief – shock, denial, anger, bargaining, depression, testing and acceptance.

Most are still at the shock or denial stage. Either outright denial that there’s a problem or denial as to the extent of it both medical and economic. A few will have already gone through all stages but most are at the beginning it seems.

It’s inevitable that during all this we will see widespread anger and in that regard there’s a serious danger. Aiming to be as politically neutral as possible:

*The virus first became a human pandemic in China (fact).

*The Chinese government has attributed the source to pangolins (debunked) or bats (plausible) in conjunction with poor food practices at markets.

*Alternative theories, which could be considered as conspiracy theories, attribute the cause to a research lab in Wuhan China located within walking distance of the food market where the outbreak seems to have originated (plausible).

Now to be clear, ordinary Chinese people did not intentionally do this but a very major failing has occurred on the part of Chinese authorities. Whether it came from a food market or a lab, in either case it was their job to properly regulate, inspect and enforce to prevent such an occurrence. An occurrence which has harmed most of the world’s human population either medically or economically. In due course anger will erupt in abundance – the only question being who it’s directed at and in what way.

In regard to that failing, China’s culture of secrecy and a lack of freedom of speech has plausibly contributed. The doctors who raised alarm were arrested, silenced and in one case ended up dead. The response was to deny and obfuscate, meanwhile the virus gained a foothold.

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/…stleblowers-speak-out-vanish-2020-2?r=US&IR=T

That is not to say that any other country has done a particularly good job either indeed the opposite is true since with very few exceptions it has’t been done at all well. And to be clear, China is one place that did it reasonably well albeit after allowing the horse to bolt.

To the extent people wish to express their anger, and I see that as inevitable and there’s no real point trying to stop it as such, my hope is that it’s directed at governments not at innocent people on account of their race and not at some pangolin who had nothing at all to do with it.

If you’re unhappy with Australia’s response then direct your anger at the government not some random doctor, supermarket worker or security guard who’s just following orders. Keep it civil however – use the pen or keyboard not the fist or gun.

If you’re unhappy with China’s initial covering up or that it happened in the first place then again the rational target of your anger is the Chinese government not ordinary Chinese people including those living in Australia. Just remember that Chinese Democracy isn’t an actual thing, it’s just the title of a CD from a band which previously asked you to Use Your Illusion.

With regard to this forum and pondering what may or may not happen, reality is that it’s a niche forum which reaches a minority of the population. Joe would obviously like it to have more members and posts, as no doubt we all would, but reality is that at present ASF is a niche community and seems to be an intelligent one. It isn’t prone to irrational panic or taking extreme views and as such I see no harm in discussing a scenario which may or may not unfold. Closing the ASX for a period would, after all, be comparatively trivial compared to much of what has already occurred and closing a stock market in a time of crisis certainly would not be unprecedented. It’s not impossible for that to occur.

As for the shops and so on, that is in my view ultimately a failure of political leadership in Australia and in the West more generally (shops are being raided in other Western countries also). To that end, leadership in a time of crisis, and I say this aiming to be unbiased despite having previously lived there for many years, but I think the Tasmanian state government is on the right track.

Normal parliamentary debate has been suspended in the island state by mutual agreement between the parties and the government (Liberal) is operating with the full backing of Labor, the Greens and the only independent state MP on this issue. As such it’s a united front – same message whether it’s from the Liberals, Labor, Greens or the independent and focusing on how best to respond in a place that depends heavily on the tourism industry which has now been almost completely shut down. Adversarial argument is gone, state parliament is now effectively a war room. Not a bad response from a place with only half a million people and limited resources – the rest of the country would do well to copy that approach without delay.

https://www.themercury.com.au/news/…a/news-story/76eab202efbd591bc6bbfdefffd3a8d8

As I said, my comments are in no way personally aimed at anyone here. :2twocents

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