Chuy’s Holdings: Q2 Results Consistent With Our Long-Term Outlook

Investment Conclusion

Chuy’s Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:CHUY) reported mixed F2Q2022 financial results. Compared to F2Q2019, outcomes improved on all measures, except for revenues, which remained slightly behind, driven by tepid macroeconomic conditions and above normal temperatures in Texas (~41% of the restaurant footprint) that resulted in softer growth in sales derived from restaurant patios and adult beverages. However, relative to F2Q2021, CHUY underperformed on all elements, besides revenues, fueled predominantly by double digit cost inflation related to dairy, fresh produce, chicken, and beef, and significantly higher hourly wages. Although, the firm raised menu prices over the first quarter and lowered spending on G&A and other operating expenses, the measures were insufficient to limit margin contraction on a year-over-year basis. As a flow-through, EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA, restaurant level operating margins, earnings, and free cash flows, declined compared to the prior year’s same quarter. During the period, CHUY opened a restaurant in Midland, Texas, expanding the footprint to 98 restaurants.

Over upcoming quarters, although we do not expect CHUY’s to suffer a major impact from continued declines in discretionary spending due to its focus on value, we anticipate weak growth in revenues and same-store sales, as they revert closer to historical averages. In addition, we anticipate lighter restaurant level margins on a year-over-year basis, due to moderating but still relatively high commodity prices, and growth in employee compensation. However, on the organizational level, we expect leverage as the company continues to pullback on G&A spending and other operating expenses, in order to bolster margins. Nevertheless, overall, we anticipate that margins are likely to decline over the next few quarters. Consequently, given our expectations for softer sales growth and margin contraction, earnings and free cash flows will possibly decrease on an annualized basis, for FY2022, in our judgment. With the potential launch of three restaurants over the next two quarters, CHUY is likely to end the year with 101 restaurants.

Longer term, we expect a significant jump in CHUY’s revenue growth rate driven predominantly by a major expansion in the size of its restaurant footprint. Same-store sales advance will be slower though still significant and be derived from menu innovation and expansion in the off-premise segment. In addition, although we believe that the company will likely meet its annual new unit development target growth rate of ~10% every year, we expect the development to remain focused in regions where it currently has a substantial presence (primarily Texas and the Mid-West), with penetration on a national scale unlikely, over the next decade.

In regard to leverage on a secular basis, we anticipate that CHUY will improve restaurant level margins by ~300 bps over the next couple of years driven by easing commodity costs, stable federal wages, and labor and operating efficiencies. Similarly, we expect margin expansion on the company level through lower marginal fixed costs/dollar of sales fueled by higher revenues, and economies of scale related to corporate overheads, the digital platform, and advertising. Based on growth in sales and margins, earnings and free cash flows are likely to surge over an elongated time horizon, in our assessment.

Considering that F2Q2022 financial results are unlikely to have a major impact on CHUY’s long-term outlook, we remain constructive on the company based on valuation. CHUY appears well positioned to achieve the 10-year normalized revenue growth rate of ~10%, and 10-year straight-lined operating cash flow margin of ~13%, factored into our Discounted Cash Flow model. Therefore, we’re maintaining our 1-year Price Target of $40/share. Reiterate Buy Rating.

(Please go through our initiation report “Chuy’s Holdings, Inc.: So Much Potential Turning To Dust” for our long term opinion on the stock).

Key Takeaways From The Second Quarter

F2Q2022 Results Summary. For the quarter, CHUY reported revenues of ~$111 million (+2.6% compared to F2Q2021), below analyst expectations of ~$112 million, and earnings per share of $0.41 (-28.1% on a year over year basis) was inline with consensus estimates. Excluding extraordinary items, earnings per share would have been $0.44, representing a decline of 29.1% from F2Q2021. In addition, same store sales increased by 1.7% over the prior year’s same quarter. Net income for the period was ~$7.9 million, reflecting a decrease of 31.4% on a year-over-year basis. Restaurant margins of 19.1% declined by 650 bps from F2Q2021. During the second quarter, the firm generated operating cash flows of ~$22.3 million.

Menu Innovation To Fuel Customer Demand. The company plans on launching a limited time only platform called CHUY’s Knockouts or CKO, which beginning In F4Q2022, will offer two to three new menu items comprised of old customer favorites and novel introductions, for a six-week period. Then beginning in F2Q2023, the company as part of the CKO program, will include one premium priced new menu item, which management believes will drive positive menu mix. The current list of proposed new menu items include The Macho Burrito, Pork Boom Boom Enchiladas, and Chuy’s Fried Chicken Tacos.

We are encouraged by the menu innovation initiative being undertaken, as it is a cost effective approach towards generating customer interest and encouraging them to visit stores. Moreover, that the CKO platform will reflect in higher revenues once premium priced menu items are launched, is an added benefit. In addition, CHUY is continuing to reintroduce menu items it had removed from the menu selection due to the pandemic. In that context, the menu size will expand to ~48 items, once the CKO platform is introduced.

Catering Business Represents Revenue Expansion Opportunity. CHUY plans on launching its catering business across its 97 stores by the end of FY2022, expanding from the 16 markets wherein it currently offers catering services. In that regard, it is notable that CHUY’s catering business at ~3% of total sales has doubled from pre-pandemic levels. Given that CHUY’s expects the catering initiative to ultimately account for ~4% to ~6% of total sales, the opportunity could develop into a significant long-term, next leg of growth for the company.

We are confident that CHUY will handily achieve and exceed the growth it expects from the catering business. Our conviction is based on several factors including that current party sizes associated with the enterprise, although returning gradually to between 100 and 150 observed prior to the viral outbreak, remain between 20 and 40 for the most part, and that the business is currently limited to 16 markets. Once party sizes revert to those evidenced during normal wedding seasons and holidays, and the initiative is rolled out system-wide, the opportunity for growth will expand significantly.

Renewed Focus On Marketing To Build Brand Awareness. With the objective of reaching a broader audience of potential customers and to renew interest among existing customers, CHUY is promoting the brand on TikTok, Instagram, YouTube, and DoorDash. The digital mediums are being utilized to introduce and highlight new menu items and to develop the chain’s appeal among potential employees. Accordingly, with advertising spending on digital media reinstated during the second quarter, marketing expense reverted to ~1.5% of revenues, consistent with historical levels. In addition, the company will introduce a new e-commerce website to improve customer experience in regard to order placement and payment processing.

We are encouraged by CHUY’s strategy to return to digital advertising. The initiatives along with national advertising, will build awareness surrounding the brand amongst a younger audience. In addition, the revamped website, with a more contemporary appearance and improvement in processing times, will improve customer appeal and support customer retention.

In our opinion, there is a disconnect between CHUY’s sales growth and the value proposition it offers customers. Therefore, we would encourage additional advertising to promote the brand in regions it has a presence in, with a view to reach a larger fraction of its target addressable market. Given that CHUY’s current advertising spending is below the industry average, it would be not be a stretch to allocate additional funds towards marketing.

Balance Sheet Appears Strong. At the end of F2Q2022, the company had a restricted cash and cash equivalents balance of ~$96.3 million and zero long-term debt on its balance sheet. In addition, CHUY has available for use, $35 million remaining on a revolving credit facility. Given these factors, we believe that the firm is appropriately funded to operate effectively and execute on its footprint growth targets. During the second quarter, CHUY repurchased 58,700 shares for a sum of ~$1.3 million. At the end of the period, the company had $20.6 million remaining under a $50 million stock repurchase program.

Bottom Line

CHUY’s appears to taking steps to shake out of the slow growth funk it appears stuck in. It has implemented price increases of 7% year-to-date, is updating the menu, expanding the catering business, and building brand awareness among the younger crowd through digital advertising. And most importantly, management has committed to expanding the footprint by 10% every year. Therefore, although we remain ambivalent towards the firm’s long-term prospects, our opinion is improving.

We need to see more operating initiatives that will reflect in better flow-through of revenue growth to the bottom-line. We need to see increasing activity to transform CHUY into a company with the energy and excitement, evident in other fast casual restaurant companies. Although, our current Buy Rating is based on valuation, as the company is undervalued on an intrinsic basis, we’d view CHUY differently, once it begins to deliver significant growth in earnings and free cash flows and rapidly develops the restaurant footprint.