Buy 10 December Inflation-Busting Dividend Dogs

Foreword

This article is based on five UBS, Kiplinger, and Barron’s articles, aimed at finding “Inflation-Busting” stocks for 2022. The author believes these stock suggestions are prescient into the new year 2023. The title and links to the articles follow:

24 Pricing Power Performers

“With inflation pressures surging, pricing power relative to cost exposures will be a key theme and source of [absolute outperformance] for global equity markets,” writes the UBS Equity Strategy team.—by: Dan Burrows April 14, 2022

7 REITS with Rising Dividends

REIT dividends are expected to post double-digit percentage growth this year, making the yield-friendly sector all the more attractive.—by: Lisa Springer April 13, 2022

10 Stocks for Rising Interest Rates

The Federal Reserve has signaled in no uncertain terms that interest rates will head higher in 2022. Here are 10 of the best stocks for this environment. —by: Jeff Reeves April 4, 2022

5 Stocks To Stave Off Sizzling inflation

Income investors like utility stocks for their stability and generous dividends. Here are 12 top-rated ones to watch in the new year. —by: Dan Burrows February 10, 2022

6 Dividend Stocks Whip Inflation

The hot new investment theme isn’t socially nuanced crypto space finance or metaverse charging networks for virtual vehicles. It’s dividends—cash payments to shareholders.

To find more dividend growers, Barron’s used an approach inspired by the Federal Reserve’s so-called dot plot, or path of expected interest rate hikes. They screened the S&P 500 for companies that analysts predict will increase payments nicely in the years ahead. The came up with six. —By Jack Hough Updated April 24, 2022 / Original April 22, 2022

Any collection of stocks is more clearly understood when subjected to yield-based (dog catcher) analysis, this collection of UBS, Kiplinger, and Barron’s articles, aimed at finding the “Inflation Busting”, stocks for 2022 is perfect for the dogcatcher process. Below are the December 14 “Inflation-Busters” as parsed by YCharts.

The prices of 10 of these 48 Kiplinger, and Barron’s dividend selections, made the possibility of owning productive dividend shares from this collection more viable for first-time investors.

Those 10 Dogcatcher Ideal “Inflation Busting” stocks for December are: Arbor Realty Trust Inc (ABR); BHP Group Ltd (BHP); Ares Capital Corp (ARCC); AllianceBernstein Holding (AB); British American Tobacco PLC (BTI); VICI Properties Inc (VICI); PacWest Bancorp (PACW); Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB); Navient Corp (NAVI); HP Inc (HPQ).

Those ten all live up to the ideal of having their annual dividends from a $1K investment exceed their single share prices. Many investors see this condition as “look closer to maybe buy” opportunity.

Which of the 10 are ‘safer’ dividend dogs? To find the answer find my ‘Safer’ December Dividend Dogcatcher follow-up detailing these UBS, Kiplinger, and Barron’s “Inflation Busting”, stocks for 2022-23 in the Seeking Alpha Marketplace appearing on or about December 21. Simply click on the link in the last Summary bullet point above.

Actionable Conclusions (1-10): Analysts Estimated 18.79% To 51.10% Net Gains For Ten Top ‘Inflation-Busting’ Dividend Stocks To December, 2023

Six of ten top “Inflation-Buster” dividend stocks by yield were also among the top-ten gainers for the coming year based on analyst 1-year target prices. (They are tinted gray in the chart below.) Thus, the yield-based forecast for these October dogs was graded by Wall St. Wizards as 60% accurate.

Estimated dividends from $1000 invested in each of the highest yielding ”Inflation Buster” stocks, added to the median of aggregate one-year target prices from analysts (as reported by YCharts), generated the following results. Note: one-year target prices by lone analysts were not included. Ten probable profit-generating trades projected to December, 2023 were:

Hasbro Inc (HAS) was projected to net $511.02, based on dividends, plus the median of target price estimates from 13 analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 23% less than the market as a whole.

NexPoint Residential Trust (NXRT) was projected to net $346.92, based on the median of estimates from 7 analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 2% greater than the market as a whole.

British American Tobacco was projected to net $312.30 based on dividends, plus the median of target estimates from 3 brokers, less transaction fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 38% less than the market as a whole.

Arbor Realty Trust Inc was projected to net $301.27, based on the median of target price estimates from 5 analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 89% greater than the market as a whole.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (TSM) was projected to net $291.98, based on the median of target estimates from 11 analysts, plus dividends, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 5% greater than the market as a whole.

Fifth Third Bancorp was projected to net $291.35, based on dividends, plus the median of target price estimates from 20 analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 20% over the market as a whole.

PacWest Bancorp was projected to net $251.10, based on dividends, plus the median of target price estimates from 9 analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 40% under the market as a whole.

ConocoPhillips (COP) was projected to net $236.30, based on dividends, plus median target price estimates from 26 analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 50% over the market as a whole.

Ares Capital Corp was projected to net $210.95, based on dividends, plus the median of target price estimates from 15 analysts, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 2% less than the market as a whole.

CVS Health Corp (CVS) was projected to net $187.90 based on the median of target price estimates from 23 analysts, plus annual dividend, less broker fees. The Beta number showed this estimate subject to risk/volatility 31% less than the market as a whole.

The average net gain in dividend and price was estimated at 29.41% on $10k invested as $1k in each of these ten stocks. These gain estimates were subject to average risk/volatility 10% over the market as a whole.

The Dividend Dogs Rule

Stocks earned the “dog” moniker by exhibiting three traits: (1) paying reliable, repeating dividends; (2) their prices fell to where (3) yield (dividend/price) grew higher than their peers. Thus, the highest yielding stocks in any collection became known as “dogs.” More precisely, these are, in fact, best called, “underdogs.”

48 Inflation Busters For 2022-23 Per December Analyst Target Data

48 Inflation Busters 2022-23 Dividends By December Yields

Actionable Conclusions (11-20): Ten Top Inflation Busters By Yield For 2022-23

Top ten 2022-23 “Inflation-Busting” stocks by yield in December represented six of eleven Morningstar sectors. First place went to the first of two real estate sector representatives, Arbor Realty Trust Inc [1]. The other placed eighth, VICI Properties Inc [8].

Second place was claimed by the single basic materials rep in the top ten,

BHP Group Ltd [2].

Positions three, four, nine and ten were claimed by financial services sector members: Ares Capital Corp [3]; Alliance Bernstein Holding LP [4]; PacWest Bancorp [9]; Fifth Third Bancorp [10].

Two consumer defensive stocks took the fifth and sixth slots on this list, British America Tobacco PLC [5], and Phillip Morris International Inc (PM) [6].

Finally, a lone consumer cyclical member placed seventh, Hasbro Inc [7},to complete the top ten “Inflation Busters” for 2022-23 dividend pack as of December 14.

Actionable Conclusions: (21-30) Ten Top “Inflation Buster” Dividend Payers For 2022-23 Showed 15.61%-47.43% Upsides While (31) Four Down-siders Stumbled In December

To quantify top dog rankings, analyst median price target estimates provided a “market sentiment” gauge of upside potential. Added to the simple high-yield metrics, median analyst target price estimates became another tool to dig out bargains.

Analysts Forecast A 7.76% Advantage For 5 Highest Yield, Lowest Priced, of 10 Inflation Busting Stocks for December 2022-23

Ten top UBS, Kiplinger, and Barron’s dividend selections, aimed at finding the “Inflation Busters” for 2022 were culled by yield for this update. Yield (dividend / price) results provided by YCharts did the ranking.

As noted above, top ten UBS, Kiplinger, and Barron’s dividend selections, aimed at finding the best Inflation Buster stocks for 2022, as screened 12/14/22, showing the highest dividend yields, represented five of eleven in the Morningstar sector scheme.

Actionable Conclusions: Analysts Predicted 5 Lowest-Priced Of The Top Ten Highest-Yield Best Bets for 2022 Dividend Stocks (32) Delivering 23.74% Vs. (33) 22.03% Net Gains by All Ten Come December, 2022

$5000 invested as $1k in each of the five lowest-priced stocks in the top ten UBS, Kiplinger, and Barron’s dividend selections, aimed at finding the “Inflation Busters” for 2022-23 by yield were predicted, by analyst 1-year targets, to deliver 7.78% more gain than $5,000 invested as $.5k in all ten. The eighth lowest-priced selection, Hasbro Inc, was projected to deliver the best net gain of 51.10%.

The five lowest-priced top-yield UBS, Kiplinger, and Barron’s dividend selections, aimed at finding the “Inflation Busters” for 2022-23 as of December 14 were: Arbor Realty Trust Inc; Ares Capital Corp; PacWest Bancorp; Fifth Third Bancorp; VICI Properties Inc, with prices ranging from $1488 to $34.19.

Five higher-priced UBS, Kiplinger, and Barron’s dividend selections, aimed at finding the “Inflation Busters” for 2022-23 as of December 14 were: AllianceBernstein Holding LP; British American Tobacco PLC; Hasbro Inc; BHP Group Ltd; Phillip Morris International Inc, whose prices ranged from $39.24 to $102.46.

The distinction between five low-priced dividend dogs and the general field of ten reflected Michael B. O’Higgins’ “basic method” for beating the Dow. The scale of projected gains based on analyst targets added a unique element of “market sentiment” gauging upside potential. It provided a here-and-now equivalent of waiting a year to find out what might happen in the market. Caution is advised, since analysts are historically only 20% to 85% accurate on the direction of change and just 0% to 15% accurate on the degree of change.

The net gain/loss estimates above did not factor in any foreign or domestic tax problems resulting from distributions. Consult your tax advisor regarding the source and consequences of “dividends” from any investment.

Afterword

This article features 48 UBS, Kiplinger, and Barron’s “Inflation Buster“ selections for 2022-23. The article focuses on the top 30, or so, dividend payers. Thus, nearly one-third of the original list of companies is neglected. Therefore, below is the complete list of 48 stocks grouped by source.

If somehow you missed the suggestion of which stocks are ripe for picking at the start of this article, here is a reprise of the list at the end:

The prices of 10 of these 48 Kiplinger, and Barron’s dividend selections, as “Inflation Buster,” stocks for 2022-23 made the possibility of owning productive dividend shares from this collection more viable for first-time investors.

Those 10 Dogcatcher ideal “inflation Busting” dividend stocks for December were:

Those ten all live up to the ideal of having their annual dividends from a $1K investment exceed their single share prices. Many investors see this condition as “look closer to maybe buy” opportunity.

Which of the 10 are ‘safer’ dividend dogs? To find the answer find my ‘Safer’ December Dividend Dogcatcher follow-up detailing these Kiplinger, and Barron’s Inflation Busting, stocks for 2022 in the Seeking Alpha Marketplace appearing on or about December 21. Simply click on the link in last Summary bullet point at the top of this article.

How All Ten Top “Inflation Buster” 2022-23 Stocks Could Become Ideal Fair Priced Dogs

Since eight of the top ten Kiplinger, and Barron’s “Inflation-Buster,” stocks for 2022 shares are now priced less than the annual dividends paid out from a $1K investment, the above charts compare those eight plus two at recent prices.

The dollar and percentage differences between recent and fair prices are detailed in the top chart. The current prices are shown in the middle chart with the fair pricing of all ten top dogs conforming to the dogcatcher ideal are detailed in the bottom chart.

With renewed downside market pressure to 30.5%, it is possible for all ten highest-yield UBS, Kiplinger & Barron’s Inflation Busting Dividend stocks, to become fair-priced with their annual yield (from $1K invested) meeting or exceeding their single share prices. This pack got a nice head-start with eight of ten already fair priced.

Stocks listed above were suggested only as possible reference points for your purchase or sale research process. These were not recommendations.

Graphs and charts were compiled by Rydlun & Co., LLC from data derived from www.indexarb.com; YCharts.com; finance.yahoo.com; analyst mean target price by Thomson/First Call in Yahoo Finance. Dog image: Open source dog art from dividenddogcatcher.com